Friday, July 17, 2009

How to make a cheat sheet

If you're going to bother throwing any money at fantasy football this year, promise yourself that you'll make your own cheat sheet.

Use Microsoft Excel, it's very easy to use. Also, learn to highlight things in color, because a good cheat sheet is color coded.

What I do each year, rather than list the top players 1-100...I rank each position, and also assign tiers to each ranking.

For instance, for running backs...I pick a group of them I would say was top tier, that they were the best of the best. I normally have about 6-7 running backs as a top tier group.

I do the same with WR/TE's and QB's. I include 2-3 of each in my top tier, and then pick second tier players, highlight those in red, and then third tier players, and highligh those in green.

There's no science in how many of each I put into which tier...just do it the way you feel it works.

I'll do the same for kickers and Defenses, but i'll normally only have 2 tiers for each, and I'll explain why later.

Using this type of spreadsheet is easy, it allows for you to have a little decision making power, but keeps your decisions based on good strategy.

The one rule to this is...never draft a 2nd tier player when a 1st is still on the board. Regardless of need, whatever. Even if you have 2 RB's already, if there's a 1st tier RB and no WR's or QB...you draft the RB.

If deciding between 2 positions of the same tier, this is when you consider need. Normally, if there is only 1 or 2 players left at a certain position and tier (say 2 RB's left in tier 2) I'll take one of those players. I'm certain to get a relatively equal QB or WR in the next round, because there's more of those left.

Ideally, you can get 2 or 3 top tier players. Then you get as many 2nd, and then as many 3rd tier players as you need.

With defenses and kickers, I mentioned you have 1st and 2nd tiers. Either get 1 first tier or 2 second tiers of each.

With ranking defenses...read the rules of scoring. This is cruicial. Some leagues give points based on yardage, and some based on turnovers/scoring only. Your first step into ranking defenses is to apply the points to what each defense had in 2008 if they had been in your league, and work from there.

Also, for each position, you have the players bye week next to his name. pay attention to these, so you don't have your backups with the same bye week as your starter. (remember, that's what backups are for).

I'll continue to work on my cheat sheet, and I'll post it here when I'm done.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson is easily pushing his way into the top group of fantasy recievers. I'm thinking anywhere between my 2nd and 4th reciever on the cheat sheet.

Several reasons...first, he's coming into his 3rd season, which can often be a reciever's breakout year.

For the first time in his career, he's going into an NFL training camp as the man...the undenied #1 reciever. The Lions have stocked him with some complimentary players, but make no mistake, he's the target for Culpepper or Stafford.

Both aforementioned quarterbacks have big arms, and are sure to loft up a few airballs to CJ...and he'll win the battle more often than not.

Pick up Calvin Johnson...even if the Lions stink out of the gate...being outscored early and often can be a blessing for wide recievers.

My final cheatsheet won't be done for a while...but make sure yours includes Calvin Johnson is a very high position.

Adrian Peterson

This will be the stud of 2009.

The guy is a phenom, he's only getting better, and lets face it...he's going to have Favre handing him the ball this year.

Favre is not your average quarterback...the defenses know he'll sling it and all too often he'll beat them deep. Now imagine Adrian Peterson getting the ball on a draw play.

This is looking very strongly like my #1 guy on the draftboard. I never finish my cheat sheet until after the preseason starts...but this one might be set in stone already.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Matt Ryan

I'm very high on Matt Ryan. He's an undeniable franchise QB the Falcons were robbed of when Vick and Bad Newz Kennels decided that they needed some greater violence in their lives.

He's the guy, and he's really pushing Peyton to be considered the 2nd QB off the board. I still have some more work to do, but holy cow now he gets Tony G...I think Ryan might just skip his sophomore jinx.

Stay tuned, but I'm sure Ryan will be gone in the top 15 this year.

Matt Cassel

Hmm...he looked pretty solid last year...maybe now that he's with the Chiefs Matt Cassel should be able to prove himself...

Red flags should be going off in your head right now. The names are rattling in my head, and it's a formula for disaster. A backup QB gets dropped into an offensive juggernaut when the star QB goes down. He looks great, like he might be a Super Bowl QB someday.

Then he goes to a worse team, without the support around him, and he falls flat on his face.


Avoid Matt Cassel, he's sure to be overdrafted.

Tom Brady

Everyone's asking how Brady will play in 2009 following the ACL tear in game 1 last year.

Chances are, the knee will probably still not be 100% for the first snap...but in reality a ACL isn't as big a deal for quarterbacks, for it doesn't effect their throwing motion.

A running back or WR would be different...as ACL's often cause them to have a so-so season or worse as their confidence in the knee improves. A quarterback may have a little pop lost in his scrambling ability, but not their arm.

Brady may have always had the ability to scramble, but it's only due to his vision and decision making, not his blazing speed. For a giggle...watch his 40 yard dash time.

Brady should be the first QB off the board, so if your league goes on a RB happy first round, be ready to take him if he falls. Also, I still have to see Randy Moss play during the preseason before I start ranking, i think Randy Moss might be my #1 overall reciever choice.

The Patriots offense should bounce back in 2009, and Brady and Moss should be some of the top producers.

Terrell Owens

TO has to be the biggest example of feast or famine players I've ever known. Some years he has dream years of almost a touchdown per week, and some years he barely makes a decent #2 reciever.

He's on a new yeam now, with a new coach and a new arm throwing to him. What direction will he turn...will he continue his fade into mediocrity, or will he show the same flash and explosiveness that gave defensive coordinators nightmares?

I would argue the latter. I think TO is ready to bounce back and be a real force in 2009, and he might come pretty cheap. Most have written him off I think, and it might push him into later rounds than he deserves.

Trent Edwards had a pretty decent year last year...he was making good decisions and getting the ball downfield. He had some good targets, but they weren't the home run threats that TO has been.

You still have Josh Reed and Lee Evans...both 5-10 guys, but now you have your 6-3 reciever who can go up in the endzone and pull them in as well as anyone ever has.

Terrell Owens...don't overdraft him, but don't let him slip past you either.

Welcome

Welcome to the Professor. Do you want to win at fantasy football, I know how. I'll share with you the strategy you'll need to draft knowledgably, how to decide who to start each week, and how to manage your roster during the season to ensure that you'll be among the front runners during crunch time.

I'll begin with some basic strategy and some specific players I'm paying attention to for 2009, and eventually share with you my 2009 cheat sheet. Your cheat sheet going into the draft will make or break your season...if you walk in with a recently purchased draft guide, you're throwing your money away.